So tonight we will find out which two NBA teams get the chance to draft Memphis point guard Derrick Rose or Kansas State forward Michael Beasley. I don't think you can go wrong with either.
Obviously certain teams would rather have one than the other when looking at their current personnel, but at worst you get "stuck" with one of these guys at #2, and then package them for a lot.
After the #2 selection, there's still plenty of talent, but probably not a player where fans will be begging their team to take.
USC guard O.J. Mayo? He's definitely a great talent with good ball-handling skills, terrific range on a jumper that will likely improve, and outstanding athleticism. However, he's also only 6'4" and likely to be a #2 guard or a combo guard in the pros.
I could have also discussed Indiana guard Eric Gordon with those comments, except Gordon is likely to be a #2 guard only, which certainly hurts his value since he's only 6'4" as well.
Then there's Arizona point guard Jerryd Bayless, Stanford center Brook Lopez... there's some quality prospects outside of the #2 spot, but they all have some flaws in their game that are likely to prevent them from becoming stars. Now obviously we say that every year and there's guys that perform better than expected every year, but I'm just saying how it looks at the moment, and why you want the #1 or #2 selection.
If there's a team out there that REALLY wants the #1 pick, it's probably the New York Knicks with Mike D'Antoni in charge now. With Derrick Rose running an uptempo offense like he did so well at Memphis, D'Antoni might be able to get the Knicks looking like the Suns soon after all.
Probability of getting the #1 pick
Miami Heat: 25%
Seattle(for right now) Sonics: 19.9%
Minnesota Timberwolves: 13.8%
Memphis Grizzlies: 13.7%
New York Knicks: 7.6%
LA Clippers: 7.5%
Milwaukee Bucks: 4.3%
Charlotte Bobcats: 2.8%
Chicago Bulls(please please please): 1.7%
New Jersey Nets: 1.1%
Indiana Pacers: 0.8%
Sacramento Kings: 0.7%
Portland Trailblazers: 0.6%
Golden State Warriors: 0.5%